The number most often quoted for what Sonoma County grapes are worth is about $2,370 a ton for Chardonnay, from the 2025 state crush report. When Turrentine Brokerage reviewed that report, it pointed out that this "district average" didn't match the spot market for new contracts for the second year running. In 2025, a Sonoma Chardonnay grower signing a new deal was looking at something closer to $800 a ton.
That gap is the most useful fact a vineyard-estate buyer can carry into a showing this fall. The average is real, but it is mostly a record of older contracts. A buyer whose fruit has no contract, or whose contract is about to expire, sells at the lower number.
The average is made of older contracts
A district average blends every ton sold in a growing district during the year. Long-term contracts signed when demand was stronger keep paying their agreed prices, and those tons pull the average up. New fruit looking for a buyer gets whatever the market offers now.
The Press Democrat's coverage of the 2025 crush report shows how calm the headline figures look. Sonoma County crushed 185,500 tons in 2025, down 13.5%. Pinot Noir averaged $3,687 a ton, up 9%. Chardonnay averaged $2,367, down 8.1%. Those numbers describe a soft year. The $800 spot quote describes a much harder one, and it is the price a vineyard without a contract actually faces.
The 2025 report is still the latest full dataset. The 2026 crush figures won't come out until early next year, so anyone pricing vineyard income this fall is working from the 2025 averages and current spot conditions.
One acre, worked through at both prices
The arithmetic below is illustrative. Yields, varietals and costs differ from block to block, and it assumes Chardonnay at a typical yield.
- Yield. Three tons an acre is the typical yield the Press Democrat cited for Panther Ridge Vineyard this summer.
- Revenue at the district average. Three tons at about $2,370 comes to roughly $7,110 an acre.
- Revenue at the spot price. Three tons at about $800 comes to roughly $2,400 an acre.
- Cost to farm. Farm bureau officials and a Cal Poly study put Sonoma County vineyard operating costs at $7,000 to $10,000 an acre, according to the Press Democrat.
At the average, the acre covers the low end of its farming cost. At the spot price, it loses somewhere between about $4,600 and $7,600 a year before anyone counts overhead or the owner's time. Pat Burns, president of the Sonoma County Farm Bureau, described where that leaves growers in the same article: "to actually farm and not pick a crop and lose money … that quickly makes decisions for you."
So the seller's contract status matters more than the varietal or the appellation. A block under an older contract may still pay its way, and an uncontracted block of the same grape usually won't.
Leaving the vines untended now has a cost
The obvious response to a money-losing acre is to stop farming it. In 2026 that option comes with costs of its own.
The Press Democrat reported this spring that a new 10-year state law lets county agricultural commissioners impose administrative civil penalties of $500 to $1,000 an acre when a grower fails to manage pests and creates a nuisance. Counties already had the power to arrange abatement and put a lien on the property to recover the cost. A lien like that can be enforced through foreclosure or collected before the property sells. Sonoma County Agricultural Commissioner Andrew Smith told the paper the county prefers good-neighbor relationships and intends to use the new authority sparingly. Neighbors' concerns about mildew, leafhoppers and invasive pests spreading from neglected blocks are the reason the law exists.
Pulling the vines out isn't free either. The same reporting found that removal runs about $2,500 an acre in Mendocino County, while regulations in Sonoma and Napa can push replanting costs into the tens of thousands of dollars an acre.
Plenty of owners have already made that decision. Sonoma County is down to 58,000 acres of winegrapes, and more than 2,700 acres came out of production between October 2024 and August 2025, the Press Democrat reported in September. Commissioner Smith put open replant permits at about 6,000 acres. Farm Bureau Executive Director Dayna Ghirardelli described open permits as authorizing the removal of another 5,000-plus acres. The two figures are framed differently, but both point to more acreage coming out. A recent revision of the county's Vineyard Erosion and Sediment Control Ordinance created an easier permitting path for swapping vineyards to other crops. Ghirardelli added that converting a vineyard to another viable agricultural use "isn't necessarily simple or immediate."
Put together, an estate's planted acres carry a cost whether they are farmed, left alone or removed. The buyer is choosing which version of that cost to take on.
What the Gundlach Bundschu filing shows about debt
The largest local example of this pressure is a winery that has farmed the same land since 1858. Bundschu Co., operating as Vineburg LLC, filed for Chapter 11 protection on Sept. 23, and the winery stayed open through the restructuring, the Press Democrat reported.
The company's legal declaration traces the problem to land. In February 2020 it bought 60 acres off Madrone Road in Glen Ellen for $11.6 million to build out the Abbot's Passage label, and the purchase came with a large loan. CEO Jeff Bundschu wrote that "the Company expanded at precisely the wrong time and assumed more operational complexity and leverage than its business could sustain." The company cut operating costs by more than 50% over 18 months and expected EBITDA to rise from a little over $800,000 in 2023 to a projected $3.28 million in 2026. With about $37 million owed to Tiverton Advisors and American AgCredit, that still wasn't enough. The company received three letters of interest from potential investors or buyers, but its lenders didn't approve them.
For an estate buyer, the takeaway is about financing. Vineyard land bought with debt depends on what the fruit and the hospitality business bring in. Abbot's Passage closed in early October, and the family's earlier plan to sell that acreage may now be limited by the bankruptcy. Gundlach Bundschu farms 160 acres, including 100 it owns at the historic Rhinefarm estate. The article names Robledo Family Winery in Sonoma Valley and Signorello Estate in Napa Valley among this year's other North Bay filings.
Sonoma agricultural land appraiser Tony Correia gave the land-market version in May, as reported by the Press Democrat:
"There's lots of sellers, and there's very few buyers."
He added that across Sonoma County, anyone who has to sell today will get less than they used to. He also expects more distressed sales as lenders put pressure on indebted growers.
Why 2026 gives buyers some room
The 2026 harvest gave buyers a little leverage. Karissa Kruse, president of Sonoma County Winegrowers, said "2026 feels very different." Yields were lighter, grapes that earlier in the year had no buyer began finding homes, and fruit quality was exceptional. Turrentine's Christian Klier told the Press Democrat that some Russian River Valley Pinot blocks that normally yield 3 to 5 tons an acre produced 1 to 1.5 tons. A short crop eases the oversupply, but it also means fewer tons to cover the same farming bill.
The forecasts point to a long recovery. Silicon Valley Bank's Rob McMillan expects the industry to bottom next year or in 2028. BMO Capital Markets' Mario Zepponi said "the horizon starts to look better in 2028." If those forecasts hold, a buyer closing this winter is likely to carry the vines through at least one more season at today's prices.
With that in mind, these are the questions that tell a buyer what the vines will actually earn:
- Is the fruit under contract, with which winery, at what price per ton, and when was the contract signed?
- When does the contract expire, and does it stay with the property after a sale?
- What did the vineyard cost to farm over the last two seasons, according to the actual records?
- Has any fruit gone unpicked or been sold at a discount, including the $300 to $400 per ton price cuts that, according to the Press Democrat, some growers accepted so wineries would take smoke-exposed fruit after the Woodside Fire?
- Are there open replant or removal permits on the parcel, and what condition are the blocks in?
Contract transfer, abatement exposure and permit status all have legal and financial consequences that depend on the specific parcel. This post is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice, so confirm your own situation with an attorney, accountant or lender before you rely on any of it. Our earlier guide on choosing the right Wine Country valley for an estate covers the lifestyle side of that decision.
A few questions we hear
Does a vineyard still add value to a Sonoma estate? Many buyers still value the views, the setting and the lifestyle the vines provide. As an income source, the answer depends on the contract. In today's market, an uncontracted acre is more likely to cost its owner money than to bring any in.
Is the crush report wrong? No. It measures what was paid across all contracts in effect. Turrentine's point is that the district average and the price on a new contract have drifted apart for two years in a row.
When will 2026 grape prices be published? The final state crush report for the 2026 harvest is expected early next year. Until then, the 2025 averages and current spot conditions are what's available.
If you're weighing a vineyard estate and want a clear look at what its vines earn under their current contracts, Wynne + Morgensen can help you read the contracts and farming records alongside the house before you make an offer. Request a Private Consultation.